友版的 chinese2 大大剛把 2011 香港的新價貼出來, (請見另文 by chinese2)
好驚人的漲幅
是否現在能下手的, 就快 "搶"? 根據各位大大的經驗, 二手錶市場會如何 / 何時反應?
vsc7969 在 星期日 2011-01-09 22:23 作了第 1 次修改
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vsc7969
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smalldoor
終極會員   |
發表於: 星期日 2011-01-09 09:15
謝謝vsc7969大大補充，不過沒登錄好像看不到 可靠消息來源國內漲幅沒有國外大啦，，至於二手市場的影響，誰都說不準的 真有喜歡PP的就買來帶爽吧，價錢放心中別想太多 |
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Chinese2
初級會員  |
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watch-fan
白金會員   |
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Dent
進階會員   |
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windcheng
白金會員 |
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wxyz
終極會員 |
發表於: 星期一 2011-01-10 08:00
擁有PP一直是愛錶人士的夢想，當能力許可時總會想擁有
近幾年來錶價不斷高漲，基本款的PP已不像十幾年前般容易入手 喜歡PP的錶迷建議還是早買早好，每年至少調漲一次的情況又開始了，且調漲後 成交折扣照舊的前提下錶真的是變貴了，高價錶就算小漲個2-3%對一些荷包不豐 的人來說也頗為驚人 |
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tcj168
分區版面管理員   |
發表於: 星期一 2011-01-10 10:28
Dent 兄 您很久沒有上巴了，不知道又入手那一支美錶ㄚ  _________________ 健人就是腳勤 ((。(^_^)。)) |
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Dent
進階會員 |
發表於: 星期一 2011-01-10 17:41
5980A+5296G 
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smalldoor
終極會員 |
發表於: 星期六 2011-01-22 09:56
貼一下今天收到的MAIL，國外資深DEALER對ＰＰ走勢的看法，有些觀點還蠻有趣的
美國市場即將再起？金融風暴後ＰＰ首次在美國漲價，。。。 還有5101Ｒ竟然是漲價最多的 
Well let me begin by saying it's been too long since I last sat down to write another watch market update... My biggest excuse is that besides an ever growing collectible watch business I've been extra busy this last year with our family as we have 3 daughters under the age of 4 plus 2 older sons. Many of my waking hours have been devoted to helping out at home but honestly it's been the most rewarding time of my life in terms of contentment and happiness in spite of the daily madness. Now, on to the task at hand of laying out the watch market landscape for 2011. I must say this last year in terms of trying to understand what the market will do next has been trying at best and even using 30 yrs of experience (that's hurts to say) has still caused for much pondering and hand wrenching . That certainly means 2010 was a year of uncertainty globally with everyone wondering when the next shoe would drop. As for us here in the US each day brought about changes and nobody could from one day to the next decide whether things would get better or worse. Funny enough we are still at the same place and that's where it gets more interesting going forward. The last few months of 2010 especially the auction market results seem to bode well for Patek Philippe and watches in general. Most of the auction houses held auctions in Geneva, New York and Hong Kong and with each auction we saw watches obtain new highs in certain models such as the Patek Philippe Ref 5970P selling for over 200k in one auction in general. This might serve the auction house well to obtain such a high price for this model but at the same time sends a wrong message to the marketplace...What does this mean then?....When you see at public auction a Patek Philippe Ref 5970P sell for over 200k in used condition that can be bought from almost any dealer in the world at 150-160k then you suddenly realize you have a complete disconnect in the auction market and/or secondary 24/7 dealer marketplace which I consider to be the real barometer for pricing today. When a particular auction house is able to achieve this kind of price for this model timepiece yet every dealer in the world knows it's worth 150k then you realize the auction house is not to be considered an accurate indicator on this particular model on this day....What you have at best is an auction house that is selling their brand to novice collectors who are undoubtly willing to grossly overpay for some watches and are not considering the value as important. For those of us in the business of buying, selling and trading high end collectible Patek Philippe and other brand timepieces this disconnect in pricing is a source of both inspiration believing the market is moving higher and yet at the same time wondering why we can't sell our watches for anywhere near the same price. My firm belief and opinion after much thought is when this type of auction sale occurs you have to completely set aside the sale as " one time" retail sale that does not reflect the current daily market price. Quite frankly this type of situation occured more frequently in 2010 fall auctions than I have seen occur before which would validate my point that 2010 was a year of uncertainty as the climate changed daily . As we move forward into 2011 I believe we have the makings of a very interesting year in the world of watches. Globally speaking Asia is still making a huge impact in the marketplace and we see a huge shift toward more important watches being sold there than ever before. Over the last few years our sales to Asia have been growing each year but what is noticeable different is the values for high end watches are rising and that would lead me to believe this year will be a very strong year for Patek Philippe, Vacheron Constantin, Breguet, Rolex and others in Asia. As for Europe the market there still seems to be a buyers market as many more watches flow from Europe than flow into Europe and this has been going on now for years......It's obvious that the Europe financial crisis is not yet solved and could actually be getting worse... Even when the Euro was strong the buyers in Europe did not reflect this strength in terms of buying power. Any time the US dollar gains strength you usually see a surge of fresh buying by US dealers in Europe but it's never the other way around and has not been for years now. The only global economy at this time that is making a real difference is Asia ....When we have watch shows which are held almost monthly here in the US by The International Watch and Jewelry Guild (IWJG) we all know that the general consensus of whether a show was successful is whether the Asians were present and buying. This has been a dominant theme now especially since the US financial crisis in 2008. I believe this wave of buying by Asia will continue to grow as the demand still outweighs the supply for their market. But then again the US watch market is still #1 in the world for high end complications like the most coveted minute repeater tourbillons such as the 5016, 5207 and 3939. Patek Philippe has always held the US market in high esteem as it was here that the name Patek Philippe became recognized as the world's leading watch company...Truly the US market was largely responsible for their success to date and the old saying " you never forget the one who brought you to the dance " rings true here. Many of our clients today are all emailing and calling looking for ways to invest in Patek Philippe and asking me what are the best watches to buy and collect....In fact I've had probably no less than 6 clients email me in the last 48 hours asking for suggestions on what I would recommend they buy for investment purposes. Well here's what I said to them......As I have stated over the last few years you cannot invest in every day modern production timepieces such the 5960P, 5970P, 5980/1A, 5712/1A ,5159, 5140 and so on and expect to make 10-20% return on your investment over the next few years. Patek Philippe cannot help itself and will continue to over saturate the market with these models hence they will be readily available on the market at discounted levels. The only true place to park your money in Patek Philippe is with discontinued and vintage models....These are always considered a place of refuge for the seasoned and elite collector...Take for example the Patek Philippe Ref 5004 which has been officially discontinued and is no longer produced...This particular model is and will always be considered one of the best complicated timepieces ever produced ....Many other great models like the 2499, 3970, 3939, 3974, 5450, 3940, 5040 and others too numerous to mention offer the best long term values for collectibility and enjoyment. As most of you know I am a huge believer in not just putting your watches away in a safe for appreciation but also for putting those same watches on your wrist and enjoying their beauty. All of us of who loves watches have one thing in common that can never be cured......Once you fall in love with watches you can never go back to the days without....Once a lover of watches always a lover! On another important note Feb 15, 2011 marks the first official price increase by Patek Philippe here in the US in over 2 years and it will be very interesting to see how the global market reacts to this increase....From my own observation of new prices I noticed that most steel models increased only slightly at best and most of the increases were in the gold and platinum models which are due to the rising gold and platinum prices....I think it's fair to say most of us believe both of these metals will continue to go higher in 2011 so I assume Patek Philippe wants to get ahead of the curve in the costs they will incur at higher levels...One watch that is worth mentioning that was the highlight of the price increase was the Patek Philippe Ref 5101 R tourbillon model which increased from 269,000 to 360,000. I find this increase unexplainable at best and not in good judgment by Patek Philippe in my opinion....The fact is this watch trades on the secondary market at approximately 210 -225k at most today and it's not particularly one of their most sought after pieces so why raise the price by over 35%. Hopefully the only good that might come from this increase would be that after no new orders arrive after 6 months they will discontinue the model and the model will start increasing in value .....It really is a beautiful timepiece and I do think it's worth owning but not at 360k or anywhere near this level of pricing. The only thing we can hope for is that Patek does not over produce in 2011 as this was the thing that hurt the market in the beginning of 2009 when the markets started weakening and Patek kept churning out production sending most modern production models to sell at deep discounts...Let's hope their seasoned team of experts don't repeat the same mistake as the last time.....As I have said many times before "human nature drives us to want what we cannot have. As always I look forward to hearing from you in the days ahead. Your partner in TIME, Trent Crowley President & CEO |
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